The predictions are being made following a study by scientists at Cornell who modeled the lake’s future using data on stream temperature and discharge, weather and lake temperature at varying depths. They modeled impacts of rising greenhouse gas emissions on the lake and took climatic snapshots of the years between 2041 to 2050 and 2090 to 2099.
For the year 2050, scientists predict that Oneida Lake’s temperatures will increase from April through November each year by about 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit. This increase has already been apparent in 2011 simulations and the differences are much starker for the end of the century. In 2099, lake temperatures at 2 meters deep are projected to increase by 3.70 degrees Celsius. At 10 meters deep, they are estimated to yield a rise of 3.37 degrees Celsius.
Researchers also expect that temperature differences between the lake’s layers will become greater and last longer than they have in the past.
"Increased stratification and water temperatures are likely to cause more eutrophic conditions in the future, including more cyanobacteria blooms," said Amy Lee Hetherington, a doctoral student in natural resources at Cornell and the study’s lead author, in a statement.
More blooms coincide with lower oxygen levels in Oneida Lake’s bottom layers that will have effects on species abundance and diversity. Cold water fish species, like the burbot, will suffer, as will creatures accustomed to living with the bottom-level oxygen levels of today.
Read the rest of this article in Lake Scientist and the original report in Ecological Modelling.
Source: Lake Scientist